The magic of cycling is about heading into the unknown with a small group of friends pulling each other up some hill, on a foggy morning and discovering an amazing view on the other side.
Startup journeys are similar .. you start off with a small group, a big idea and head out to figure out if you can create something magical. Along the journey there are many twists and turns, and great founders-teams navigate the unknowns better than others. I’ve found the framework below helpful in representing my learning from them:
Note: the y-axis is what’s known and unknown to you and the x-axis has the same for others.
The A and B quadrants on the left are the easy, less interesting ones but you will kick yourself for missteps made here, so let’s spend a minute. In bottom left “A” - are the potentially important but repeatable playbooks like hiring, setting up KPIs/metrics, regulatory, compliance and governance - make sure you hire for the best capabilities. And as a founder, if you’re hearing a lot of knowns in a meeting, you’re operating from a limited worldview, and likely not making great decisions towards creating an outlier. On the top right “B” are the avoidable mistakes and someone out there has done this / knows this already. As a founder / startup operator, your resourcefulness has to kick in, and you have to find that someone! Reinventing the wheel, wastes cycles (pun intended!) and you can end up making the avoidable mistakes.
“C” - this is what makes a founding team special. They have … “It”. It could be proprietary IP/product, or technical capability, and more often than not its life experience that enables them to look at the world in a way that few can. So they’re able to convert what’s unknown to others, into knowns for themselves. This helps them go further into the unknown, convert big leaps into calculated jumps. You can see this clearly with experienced founders, who are operating in their domain (so more knowns for them) and load the dice in their favor.
“D” - unknown to you and others - and you’re in uncharted territory. This is where the magical ride happens with the unbelievable view at the end of it. Great founders have the courage to go into the unknown, and create something special. They have the inside track on a new space, and the capability to convert the unknowns into knowns along the way. As a VC, we have the privilege to follow them into the unknown, and our role is similar to a team car (the car that follows a cyclist uphill), to help them along the way by (a) planning the ride and looking around corners to prevent falls (b) help figure out when to step on the gas, when to conserve energy and (c) motivate them along the way + help in repairs. As with almost everything in life, it comes down to open communication between the founder (rider) and the VC (team car), which can make the ride a “10X journey”.
Am grateful to have a fun cycling cohort to discover the unknown, and treasure the magical ride. And privileged to have the responsibility of a seat in the team car with many founders who are charting a path into the unknown. In all of this, it’s most important for me to keep my feet on the ground, remember that most decisions I make are flawed, and keep thinking of the unknowns in my daily decisions. So, I ended up putting a painting at home that serves as a daily reminder of this framework as soon as I enter the home (my supportive wife of course thinks am mad!)
Painting Note: Raza serigraph of Satya-Asatya
As is evident, this way of thinking about the unknowns has had a deep impact on my life and making decisions. This framework is far from original and you will find it in almost every book for critical thinking, making decisions or super forecasting. Would love your feedback and thoughts on this to make my own process better. Here’s to you finding magical rides in the unknown!
Nicely framed. Recyclable ( pun intended ) theory - not just for startups but for any initiative. Correlates with risk reward . Experts will fall in C quadrant - like your earlier avatar of McKinsey consultant. But entrepreneurs definitely in D though they might posture to be in C . Very good read. Keep spinning
Love the analogy and the framework. Hadn't come across earlier so very useful :)